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This post is part of a series sponsored by Cotality.

There’s a blurry line between where a wildfire ends and a conflagration begins. But, without an understanding of both types of fires, their dynamics, and their unique risks, it is impossible to develop a comprehensive wildfire-related risk management strategy.

A wildfire is an uncontrollable fire that usually begins in the wildlands and is largely fueled by natural vegetation. A conflagration, on the other hand, occurs when a wildfire spreads to the built environment and evolves into a structure-to-structure fire. With manmade materials fueling the flames, conflagrations intensify and accelerate much faster than traditional wildfires could.

Once a wildfire turns into a conflagration, the flames can burn communities to the ground in just a couple hours, or less.

Conflagrations are on the rise, which is why Cotality launched the Wildfire Conflagration model — the first solution of its kind to analyze the risk of conflagration at every structure.

While traditional wildfire models focus solely on the hazard, Cotality’s new model is dedicated to evaluating risk of conflagration in the built environment.

Using a conflagration-specific risk assessment tool in tandem with a traditional wildfire risk evaluation solution like the Cotality Wildfire Risk Score (WFRS) enables insurers to create a more holistic risk management strategy. It is only with mechanisms to look at all angles of wildfire-related risk that insurers can provide more coverage in higher risk areas — without gambling their solvency.

Wildfire and conflagrations: A distinction that matters

Historically, catastrophe risk management professionals classified wildfires as “secondary perils”, believing they did not warrant the same level of modeling scrutiny as did traditional “primary perils,” like hurricanes and earthquakes. But after a decade of rising losses tied to wildfires, the catastrophe community now classifies wildfires as an “emerging secondary peril,” inching their way into the “primary” ranks of hurricanes and earthquakes.

The growing intensity of wildfires over the last decade has prompted many property insurance providers to shift their risk appetite. They are pulling out of the wildfire-prone areas, suspending the renewal of certain policies, and substantially increasing premiums.

This surge in wildfire destruction isn’t due to dramatically shifting weather patterns or increasingly flammable natural vegetation alone. Rather, it’s because wildfires are increasingly becoming wildfire-induced conflagrations, including the 2023 Maui fires and the 2025 Los Angeles fires.

Once considered an exclusively urban threat, conflagrations are now blazing more frequently in suburban and even rural areas. Driving this phenomenon is the rapid expansion of the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) — where human development meets natural wildland. These zones have grown quickly in the era of remote work and rising property values, as land in the WUI is often more affordable to build on, particularly in California, while also offering scenic views and proximity to nature. Swaths of new homeowners in these areas inadvertently add fuel to potential fires — quite literally.

Since 2020, there have been 10 major wildfire-induced conflagrations that have resulted in 26,000 structures destroyed in the U.S. The Los Angeles wildfires alone caused between $35 to $45 billion in insured losses, according to Cotality™ data. With events like these happening at least every other year, insurers need to measure the elevated risk that conflagration can bring to their portfolio.

A dual approach for a natural-ish hazard

With conflagration in the mix, wildfires present a complex, multi-dimensional peril. Although different than “all natural” perils, they aren’t uninsurable. With the right risk strategy and digital tools, insurers can make more data-backed risk decisions that enable them to operate in the expanding WUI.

Cotality offers dual views of non-house fire risk through two highly granular, deterministic risk models. These two distinct perspectives helping insurers see past blind spots, delivering a comprehensive assessment of non-house fire risk for any property.

The Cotality Wildfire Conflagration model returns a 1-100 score that insurers can use alongside the 1-100 Wildfire Risk Score to gain a comprehensive view of fire risk for any property. Each score reflects the distinct factors that contribute to conflagration and wildfire risk, respectively, providing straightforward, actionable tools for underwriters and risk managers.

The Wildfire Risk Score (WFRS) considers the following for any property:

• Risk on the property
• Distance to higher hazard areas
• Distance to wildland
• Wind
• Drought

This score zeroes in on the natural wildfire hazard itself and potential impact on properties before the built environment gets in the way.

Then, the Wildfire Conflagration Score considers the following:

• Structure characteristics like roofing and siding composition, combustible attachments, and window materials
• Building density
• Wind direction
• Weather and climate characteristics
• Ember component and all nearby vegetation types

Why both scores are must-haves

Using both scores on every property is critical because a property with one type of fire risk may not be at risk for the other. A property with very low wildfire risk — far enough away from the WUI to raise traditional concern — could be at a very high conflagration risk. A recent analysis by Cotality identified thousands of properties within the Palisades and Eaton Fires with low wildfire risk but high conflagration risk.

When insurers leverage both scores in decision-making processes around eligibility, underwriting, and even pricing determinations, they will have a comprehensive view of risk at the property level.

Conflagration at the core of the wildfire consideration

The ability of insurers to provide widespread, affordable insurance coverage to people across the United States — even in high-risk areas — is critical for both the long-term survival of the insurance system and home ownership.

Cotality’s new Wildfire Conflagration Risk Score, now available in California and other western states shortly, is a key addition to any modern wildfire risk strategy. It is the toolset on the market that answers the two critical questions: How will a fire start? And, how far will it go?

It’s time to make conflagration a part of the wildfire conversation—and to give it the dedicated analysis it demands.

To learn more about Cotality’s wildfire suite, contact us today.

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Topics
Catastrophe
Natural Disasters
Wildfire

By Loretta L. Worters, Vice President of Media Relations, Triple-I

When Karla Scott first entered the insurance industry, she didn’t set out with a grand plan to become a leader in marine underwriting.

“I fell into it,” she admits. Starting at a brokerage firm focused on logistics insurance, she quickly discovered a passion for global trade and cargo underwriting.

“It’s different every day,” says Scott, who is global logistics product leader and senior managing director, Ocean Marine, The Hartford. She joined the company after The Hartford acquired Navigators in 2019.

“The technical work keeps my skills sharp, while the camaraderie and shared purpose offer personal and professional fulfillment.”

– Karla Scott

Scott works with clients, agents, and brokers around the world to ensure that businesses have the protection they need through the product’s entire supply-chain life cycle. Her team insures raw materials and finished goods that are transported on containerships, planes, trains, and trucks.  From geopolitics to commodity shifts, it’s an ever-evolving, complex industry that demands constant awareness and adaptation.

Now, with 24 years in marine insurance, Scott reflects on a career shaped by resilience, strong mentorship, and a deep commitment to community. Her journey underscores both the opportunities and challenges faced by women in a traditionally male-dominated field.

“Disrupting trade with…China, Canada, or Mexico would affect cost and the availability of insurance coverage.”

– Karla Scott

A Sea Change for Women

“Fifteen years ago, I sat at a table with 35 industry leaders and was the only woman,” Scott says. “But progress is happening. While marine insurance remains a niche within the broader insurance world, more women are entering the field and rising into leadership roles.”

There continues to be a gender pay gap and lack of career advancement opportunities, but Scott says “part of the reason, frankly, is that women tend not to self-advocate. It’s critical in the marine insurance space to promote yourself, but women often feel uncomfortable doing that.  Self-advocacy is not boastfulness. No one is going to put you in the spotlight unless you step into it.  Those are the skills we need to teach women coming up in this business.”

Being a woman on the West Coast in an East Coast-dominated industry meant navigating additional hurdles.

“There’s a current you swim against,” she says.

Overcoming Barriers

Support from forward-thinking male mentors and advisors helped her stay the course.

“I am indebted to three mentors who presented different strengths,” Scott says. “I learned how to manage people, to motivate people, technical skills, how important your reputation is in this industry, and how to push hard and be aggressive in certain situations and not aggressive in other situations.”

She also candidly addresses the internal battles many women face — imposter syndrome.

“I’ve experienced it myself and have reached out to my mentors, who are great at listening to my frustrations,” she says. “Having a strong network can help you work through those issues. Now that I’m on the other side, I’m pushing my mentees through those obstacles, helping them find their voice and teaching them to self-advocate—skills critical to closing the gender pay gap.”

The Power of Community

Scott’s involvement with the American Institute of Marine Underwriters (AIMU) and the Board of Marine Underwriters in San Francisco has been instrumental in her career. She has served as president of the latter twice and speaks passionately about the importance of collaboration in the insurance industry.

“One of the most unique parts of marine insurance is that we work in partnership with competitors to solve industry problems,” she says. “The technical work keeps my skills sharp, while the camaraderie and shared purpose offer personal and professional fulfillment.”

Trade Tensions and Industry Impacts

As global trade faces increasing scrutiny and tariff battles, Scott is already seeing the effects.

“Clients are canceling freight contracts, and volumes are dropping,” she says. “The result means lower trade volume, higher valuation of goods, and potential inflationary cycles may hit consumers hard.”

She points out that the lack of federal stimulus (unlike during the pandemic) leaves little room for economic cushioning.

“It’s a ‘hold your breath’ kind of moment,” Scott says.

Cargo theft is another growing concern.

“It spikes when inflation rises,” Scott notes, pointing out how easy it has become to resell stolen goods on platforms like Amazon and eBay.

Talk of reshoring manufacturing often overlooks the complexity of global trade.

“You can’t flip a light switch and manufacture everything in the U.S.,” she explains. “Machinery to build those goods often comes from Germany or Japan.

“Disrupting trade with top partners like China, Canada, or Mexico would significantly affect both cost and the availability of insurance coverage,” Scott says. “If consumer confidence drops and trade volumes fall, insurance demand will, too.”

Scott also highlights a deeper economic risk: the potential erosion of the U.S. dollar’s dominance in global trade. “If that shifts, the American economy could face even greater challenges.”